Contents

• Micro, Small, & Medium Enterprises and Pandemic in Odisha: A Field Based Analysis

• Access, Utilization, and Repayment of Credit by Rural Households in Odisha during Covid-19: A Case Study of Kendrapara District

• Industrial Policies in India: Did they Work?

• What Determines Child Immunisation? A Study of Socio-Economic Factors in East Sikkim

• Confronting Child Health: Highlighting the Effects of WASH Practice in India

• Performance of Leather Firms in India: A Measure of Technical Efficiency and its Determinants

• Economic Divergence of Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh during Economic Liberalization: Role of Agriculture

• Analyzing the Impact of Capital Flight on Foreign Exchange Volatility: A Case Study of Nigeria

• Tradeoff between Inflation, Unemployment and Output Gap in India: An Empirical and Theoretical Examination

Micro, Small, & Medium Enterprises and Pandemic
in Odisha: A Field Based Analysis

Alok Ranjan Behera ¹
Minaketan Behera ²
Niharika Mohapatra ³

This study tries to evaluate the contribution of MSMEs to the Odisha economy and measure changes in employment, sales, and revenue during COVID-19. It examines the assistance the government provides to the MSMEs to meet their needs and the extent to which they are satisfied. Data used have been gathered through personal interviews with MSME entrepreneurs in Odisha and secondary sources. Primary data analysis reveals that there is an inverse impact of COVID-19 on employment, revenue, and sales of MSMEs in Odisha. The effectiveness of government policies in overcoming the problems and issues during COVID-19 was found to be inadequate. There is an urgent need for non-state agencies to support the struggling MSMEs in terms of marketing, E-marketing, credit support, training, and technology.

1. Assistant Professor III/Reader, Department of Analytical and Applied Economics, `Utkal University, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India.
   Email: arbehera@utkaluniversity.ac.in
2. Professor, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India.
   Email: behera.minaketan@gmail.com
3. Research Scholar, Department of Analytical and Applied Economics, Utkal University, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India.
   Email: niharikamohapatra@utkaluniversity.ac.in

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Access, Utilization, and Repayment of Credit by
Rural Households in Odisha during Covid-19:
A Case Study of Kendrapara District

Sabina Begum ¹
Mitali Chinara ²

This study aims at examining rural households’ access to credit, utilization pattern, and repayment behaviour during Covid-19 using data from 120 households from Kaupada village of Kendrapara district. Descriptive statistics and a logit model were used to analyse the data. It has been observed that 81 of the 120 households (67.5 per cent) were in debt and 37 of the 81 indebted households (45.68 per cent) settled their debts in time. Hence, the overall loan recovery scenario was found to be quite discouraging. Scruples against defaulting a loan self-consciously and expectation of securing loans in the future were reported by most of the borrowers as major factors of timely loan repayment. The results of the logit model suggest that age, income of the households, spatial distance from the credit institution, size of land owned, and membership of cooperative societies and self-help groups were significant factors influencing households’ credit access while gender, household size, total household income, sources of credit, and interest rate were found to be statistically significant contributing factors affecting loan repayment behaviour of the households in the study area. Household indebtedness is a growing concern, requiring prudent financial management and increased awareness to avoid long-term financial strain and instability.

1. Ph.D. Scholar, Department of Analytical and Applied Economics, Utkal University, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, 751004,
   Email: sabinabegum676@gmail.com
2. Professor, Department of Analytical and Applied Economics, Utkal University, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, 751004,
   Email: mitalichinara@yahoo.co.in

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Industrial Policies in India: Did they Work?

Raavi Aggarwal¹

This article analyses relationships between the implementation of state-level industrial policies in India and manufacturing sector economic performance (employment and gross value added), utilizing data from the Annual Survey of Industries conducted by the Government of India. I employ panel data fixed-effects regression models to evaluate the associations between the industrial policy and state-industry specific performance over the 2007-08 to 2014-15 period, incorporating potential effects of the state government’s political alignment, infrastructure provision and educational expenditure in the state. The results provide evidence of a positive correlation between industrial policy implementation and firm output and employment, by around 12.6 – 14 per cent. However, subsequent introductions of an industrial policy are negatively associated with employment and are uncorrelated with industrial GVA. This analysis has implications for economic policy in light of the Central Government’s plans to implement a revised industrial policy at the national scale.

Keywords : Industrial policy, Employment, Manufacturing sector, Indian economy.

JEL Codes: O14, L52, L60

1. Visiting Assistant Professor, Indian Statistical Institute, Delhi, 7 Shaheed Jeet Singh Marg, New Delhi 110016.
   Email: raaviaggarwal@isid.ac.in

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What Determines Child Immunisation?
A Study of Socio-Economic Factors in East Sikkim

Ruma Kundu ¹
Srikanta Kundu ²

Young children face the risk of being infected by a variety of diseases; this makes it necessary to resort to vaccination as a failsafe for ensuring healthy life of the child. However the success of the immunisation drive is conditioned by prevailing conditions. Some of these also determine whether family members opt for full, partial or no immunisation. This paper attempts to identify and estimate the impacts of various socio-economic factors on childhood immunisation coverage in the East district of Sikkim. The study is based on primary data consisting of 204 respondents collected through household survey. The ordered probit and Heckman probit models have been utilised to estimate the significant change in childhood immunisation coverage. The study found that the birth order of child (BOC), mother’s age, the standard of living, caste and religion have a significant impact on childhood immunisation coverage. With regard to the extent of immunisation, the important elements are mother’s education, mother’s age, gender of the household head and distance from hospital.

Keywords : Child Immunisation Coverage, Socio-Economic Conditions, Immunisation, Ordered Logit, Heckprobit, East Sikkim.

JEL Codes: : A10, A13, C5, I15, O10

1. Sikkim University, Tadong, Gangtok, Sikkim, India,
   Email: rumakundu76@gmail.com
2. Associate Professor, Indian Institute of Management Sirmaur Dhaula Kuan, District Sirmaur, Himachal Pradesh,
   Email: kundu.srikanta@gmail.com

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Confronting Child Health: Highlighting the Effects of
WASH Practice in India

Subhalakshmi Paul* ¹

Infants and young children are particularly vulnerable to diarrheal illnesses, which are a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Across developing nations like India, diarrhea among children is a disease that is growing more common. Furthermore, it is a significant contributor to malnutrition, which is the third leading cause of mortality for children under five. This has caused the field of public health to become extremely concerned. The purpose of this study is to determine how WASH indicators affect the control of diarrhea in India using data from the National Family and Health Survey (NFHS-5, 2019–21). As a WASH indicator we mainly focused on basic three factors in-house water access, stool disposal process and menstruation hygiene. In order to better understand the prevalence of acute diarrhea among under-five children in this community and the factors related with it, the purpose of this study was to look into it. It also aims to determine whether socioeconomic factors are associated with the prevalence of diarrheal disease in children under the age of five. A cross-sectional study was conducted among the children under age five using NFHS fifth round data. The study uses the probit model to account for the geographical basis for assuming control of India's states and the mean difference approach to comprehend the scenario. According to the study, properly disposing of stool contributes significantly to the prevention of diarrheal illnesses. Additionally, better hygiene among moms is a key factor in reducing the incidence of diarrhea in children under five. The results of the study showed that there is a 29 percent reduction in child diarrhea if the household knows how to properly dispose of the child's waste. Concurrently, in the Indian rural belt, there is an 81 percent likelihood of improving child health if women are growing more concerned about hygiene. Studies also indicate that in order to reduce diarrheal illnesses, the government should prioritize enhancing the educational system, the availability of clean water, and public awareness.

Keywords: Children under 5 Years, Health and Economic Development, Water

JEL Code: : J13, I15, Q25

1. Assistant Professor, Ananda Mohan College, Department of Economics; Kolkata-09, WB.
   E-mail: subhalakshmi9@gmail.com

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Performance of Leather Firms in India: A Measure of
Technical Efficiency and its Determinants

Mohsin Taj* ¹
Nisar Ahmad Khan ²

This study aims to assess the performance of the leather industry in India by measuring its technical efficiency and identifying the impact of firm size and other factors that may be responsible for variations in efficiency. This study utilizes cross-sectional data from four different years (2015-16, 2017-18, 2019-20, and 2021-22) provided by the Annual Survey of Industry (ASI) to fit the Cobb-Douglas type stochastic frontier function. In addition to estimating the frontier function, an inefficiency model is also employed to assess the impact of the firm's size and other determinants. The result of the study shows that in the current economic scenario, the Indian leather industry is working at an average efficiency level between 80-90% spanning over the sample years. The significant coefficient of labor and intermediate inputs indicates that the leather industry is labor-intensive whereas, capital has an insignificant contribution in determining production behavior. Further, the size of the firm has a positive impact on the firm’s efficiency, and there is no clear relation between the age of the firm and its level of technical efficiency. The unique aspect of this study is its utilization of a five-digit NIC code classification to identify companies in the leather industry from the ASI. Previous studies on the leather industry have not employed this approach, as they have typically used three-digit or fourdigit NIC codes, only measuring technical efficiency at the overall industry level. Additionally, this study utilizes two proxies to gauge the size of the firm and evaluate their impact on the firm’s efficiency. This study only uses data from registered firms, as the ASI (Annual Survey of Industries) exclusively surveys registered manufacturing firms in India. Additionally, the study is based on cross-sectional data from each of the four years because it is not possible to create a panel using ASI data, as there is no common unique identifier available in subsequent years.

Keywords: Technical Efficiency, Stochastic Frontier Analysis, leather Industry, Annual Survey of Industry, Industrial Economics.

1. Research Scholar, Dept. of Economics, Aligarh Muslim University, Aligarh, Uttar Pradesh, 202001.
   Email: mohsin.eco.0802@gmail.com
2. Professor, Dept. of Economics, Aligarh Muslim University, Aligarh, Uttar Pradesh, 202001.
   Email: nisarahmadkhanecon@gmail.com

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Economic Divergence of Madhya Pradesh and
Uttar Pradesh during
Economic Liberalization: Role of Agriculture

Santosh Kumar¹

The paper attempts to address the issue of trend of economic disparity between developed states and underdeveloped states of India by measuring the divergence of per-capita income of two backward states Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh as compared to the all India per-capita income during the period of economic liberalization. The study takes the period from 1993-94 up to 2019-20, which is fairly a long run period during which India has gone through the process of economic liberalization. The Neoclassical model of economic growth, especially the Barrow’s model proposes that when an economy grows at faster pace the regional disparity falls. Though the current study’s findings based on the data of per-capita income at constant price shows that disparity between backward states and developed states has gone up. In the process of studying rising economic divergence, the study finds that performance of agriculture sector has greater implication in deciding the extent of economic performance of Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh and further their divergence from all India level. The existing data show that better agricultural performance of Madhya Pradesh has led to better economic performance of Madhya Pradesh as compared to Uttar Pradesh and during better performance period the trend of economic divergence of Madhya Pradesh has slowed down. The role of state through Minimum Support Price and better agricultural infrastructure has played major role in better economic outcome for Madhya Pradesh as compared to Uttar Pradesh. Madhya Pradesh has shown better agricultural parameters during the period after mid-2000s.

Keywords : Indian Economy, Regional Disparity, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Role of Agriculture, Economic Growth, Sectoral Performance.

JEL Classification: O13, P25, P26, Q18, R11, R58

1. Associate Professor in Economics, Department of Commerce, Shri Ram College of Commerce, University of Delhi, Maurice Nagar, Delhi-110007.
   E-mail ID: santosh.kumar@srcc.du.ac.in

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Analyzing the Impact of Capital Flight on Foreign
Exchange Volatility: A Case Study of Nigeria

O. F. Ajayi¹
A. S. Olayiwola²
O. O. Oyewole³
T. O. Akinbobola⁴

The study examines how capital flight (KAF) affects the volatility of foreign exchange (FX) between 1986 and 2022. The GARCH (1,1) technique was used in the study to generate FX volatility, and the ARDL method was used to analyze how capital flight affected currency volatility in Nigeria. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Foreign Exchange Reserve (FER), Domestic Interest Rate (DINT), Trade Openness (TOP), Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP), Inflation Rate (INF), Real Exchange Rate Volatility (REER), and Capital Flight (KAF) are the independent variables in the model, while FX volatility is the dependent variable. There is a long-term relationship between the variables in the model. The study also demonstrates that while KAF has a favorable impact on FX volatility in the short run, it does not, in the long run, encourage FX volatility. On the other hand, it is discovered that TOP and inflation are the primary factors that, over time, encourage FX volatility. The ECM conclusion also shows that all variables, with the exception of INF and DINT, have a favorable short-term impact on FX volatility. As a result, the analysis makes the conclusion that, during the anticipated period, capital flight only increases FX volatility in Nigeria in the short run.

Keywords : Foreign Exchange volatility; Real Exchange Rate; Domestic Interest Rate; Capital Flight; Inflation Rate; Trade Openness; and Error Correction Model.

1. Department of Economics, Chrisland University, Abeokuta.
   Email: omotolafadekemi@gmail.com
2. Department of Economics, Chrisland University, Abeokuta.
   Email: abiodunolayiwola37@gmail.com
3. African Institute for Science Policy and Innovation (AISPI), Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife.
   Email: hoyebisi@gmail.com
4. Department of Economics, Obafemi Awolowo University.
   Email: tbobola@yahoo.co.uk; tbobola@oauife.edu.ng

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Tradeoff between Inflation, Unemployment and
Output Gap in India: An Empirical and
Theoretical Examination

Tilak Raj¹
Gaurav Bhatia²

Inflation and unemployment are the major concerns for the economies of the world. Rising prices lead to a fall in overall demand, which in turn results in a decline in overall supply and a corresponding decrease in the demand for labour. In the present study the tradeoff between inflation and unemployment, output gap for the Indian economy over the period 2011 to 2020 has been examined. An attempt has also been made to analyze the state-wise unemployment, inflation and output gap. Previous empirical studies in India have shown mixed results regarding the Phillips Curve relationship. While some studies found a negative relationship, others suggested a weakening or even a breakdown of this tradeoff due to factors like supply shocks and structural changes in the economy. The output gap in India has been significantly influenced by economic cycles, supply-side constraints, and policy measures. A positive output gap often leads to demand-pull inflation, while a negative gap indicates underutilization of resources, leading to low inflation. The present study found that in the short run, there is an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment and as inflation rises, unemployment falls, and vice versa. The existence of a relatively high unemployment rate requires revisiting the relationship and applying the same in economic policymaking. The low unemployment rate may seem good for the economy and the work force. Lower unemployment rates can lead to higher inflation due to increased demand for goods and services. A positive output gap (actual output exceeds potential output) tends to push inflation upward, while a negative output gap exerts downward pressure on inflation.

Keywords : Economy, Inflation, Output Gap, Unemployment, labour supply.

1. Associate Professor (Economics), University Business School, Panjab University, Chandigarh.
   Email ID: traj@pu.ac.in
2. Director, Ministry of Labour and Employment, Chandigarh,
   Email ID: gauravbhatia1415@gmail.com

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