Special Centennial Issue

No. 417

October 2024

Vol. CV (Part-II)

ISSN: 0019-5170

Contents

Unravelling the Youth Exodus: Drivers of International
Migration from Rural Punjab

Prabhjot Kaur 1
Amanpreet Kaur 2

The present research attempts to ascertain the drivers of youth migration intentions by using a hybrid "health belief model" (HBM) and "theory of planned behaviour" (TPB) model. Data of 412 respondents collected through a primary survey was analysed using structural equation modelling. The analysis revealed that the studied relationships underscore the issue of poverty and desperation, deteriorating socio-political environment, better employment opportunities abroad, belief in the ability to migrate, positive perception of significant others regarding migration and enhanced ease in the process of migration, which are significant contributors to the migration decisions.This research covers an important gap in the literature as the international migration of youth has largely been absent from policy platforms of the state and the country, while interstate migration is a widely debated phenomenon.

Keywords: migration intentions, quantitative research, structural equation modelling, youth migration, primary survey, health belief model.
  1. Research Scholar, Guru Nanak Dev University, Punjab School of Economics, Punjab, INDIA
    E-mail : prabhjotsandhu669@gmail.com
  2. Assistant Professor, Guru Nanak Dev University, Punjab School of Economics, Punjab, INDIA.
    E-mail : apreet996@gmail.com

Determinants of Gems and Jewellery Exports from
India: A Time Series Analysis

S. Karpagalakshmi 1
A. Muthusamy 2

Gems and Jewellery are part of various values and customs around the world. Gems and Jewellery have been essential parts of both aesthetic as well as investment drives. The gems and Jewellery industry has gradually become important for the Indian economy due to its contribution to India's total exports. This paper attempts to evaluate the impact of major factors affecting gems and Jewellery exports from India. For time series analysis, data (2001 to 2021) were collected from various sources and used to develop an export supply function at the macro level. The value of the finished gems and Jewellery exports from India was taken as a dependent variable, whereas export price, real exchange rate, trade openness, and the number of colored gems stones were taken as independent variables. Co-integration analysis and Error Correction methods were employed to estimate short and long-run elasticity. The coefficient of this variable explains that for every one percent increase in the exchange rate, there might be a 5.1 percent decrease in exports of gems and Jewellery in the long run. In a similar context, Real GDP, the share of semi-manufactured goods exports, and trade openness showed the effect of 3.2, 0.72, and 2.4 percent increase in the export supply of gems and Jwellery in the long respectively. Export prices showed a negative relationship with the value of gems and Jewellery exports. The coefficient of this variable suggested that for every one percent increase in the export prices, there might be -3.4 percent decreases in the export supply of finished gems and Jewellery in the long run. Based upon the findings, it is suggested exchange rate of the Indian rupee should be stabilized with a strengthening industry of semi- manufactured gems and Jewellery goods in the country.

Keywords: Gems and Jewellery, Exports, Co-integration Analysis and Error Correction Method.

  1. Teaching Assistant, Department of International Business, Alagappa University, Karaikudi-4, Tamil Nadu. Email: karpagalakshmiselvamani@yahoo.in
  2. Professor and Head, Department of International Business, Alagappa University, Karaikudi-4, Tamil Nadu. Email: muthuroja67@rediffmail.com

The Gravitational Pull of India-Singapore Financial
Services Trade: An Augmented Gravity Analysis of
India-Singapore FTA

Pralok Gupta1
Nitika Arneja 2

This study assesses the impact of the India-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (FTA)- Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA) on financial services trade flows between the two countries. An augmented gravity model is employed in which along with the prominent explanatory variables like GDP and distance, we also examined exchange rate, per capita GDP gap and a dummy variable for India-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (FTA) to account for the specificities of particular trade relations. Further, three dependent variables (Bilateral trade flows, exports, and imports) are regressed on these explanatory variables. A panel framework to cover financial services trade variations between Singapore and its nine trading partner countries including India during the period 2000- 2019 (Pre COVID-19) is utilised. The panel regression results indicate that GDP, distance, per capita GDP gap, FTA, and bilateral exchange rates are the key factors impacting the volume of financial services trade between India and Singapore. GDP has a favourable impact on financial services trade whereas distance has a negative impact, as expected. The negative coefficient of the per capita GDP gap backs up Linder's claim that countries with similar per capita incomes trade more intensively. The FTA dummy variable has a positive sign and is statistically significant. It illustrates that financial services exports and imports have increased since India and Singapore inked a free trade agreement in 2005. In this context, both countries should seek ways to strengthen their trade ties, allowing them to fully leverage their comparative and competitive advantages while also removing trade barriers so as to reap more economic benefits.

Keywords : FTA; Trade Integration; Gravity Model; CECA; Financial Services.

JEL Codes: F13, F14, F15

  1. Associate Professor, Centre for WTO Studies, Indian Institute of Foreign Trade, New Delhi.
    Email: pralok@iift.edupralokgupta@gmail.com
  2. PhD Scholar, Indian Institute of Management, Lucknow, Email: nitikaarneja10@gmail.com

Efficacy of Monetary Policy on Private Consumption and
Private Investment in India

Niranjan. R 1

The study using the structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model for the quarterly data from Q1-2004-05 to Q2-2019- 20, examine the effectiveness of the monetary policy on private consumption and private investment in India. The impact of structural variations and exogenous shock on these two demand-side variables is investigated by deciphering the speed of adjustment and lag in the transmission of monetary policy. The results suggest that following a positive interest rate shock, credit to households and household consumption declines. The effects of shock on consumption is not instantaneous, it affects consumption from the second quarter, due to lags in the transmission process. However, the effects of rate hike are significant for private investment, influencing from the second quarter as evidenced from the impulse responses. The findings clearly indicate that the overall movements in credit to households and bank rate explains variations of private consumption in the medium term to long term. The variations in private investment in short term, medium and long term are attributed to policy rate shock.

Keywords : Monetary Policy, Aggregate demand components, SVAR Model.

  1. Assistant Professor, Department of Studies and Research in Economics, Vijayanagara Sri Krishnadevaraya University, Ballari 583105, Karnataka, India.
    Email: niranjan@vskub.ac.in

Macroeconomic Determinants of Financial Inclusion
in India: An Econometric Perspective

Bhagirath Prakash Baria 1
Devanshi Himanshu Mehta 2

This paper examines the determinants of financial inclusion in India from a macroeconomic standpoint since the advent of economic reforms. Time series data on the key macroeconomic indicators are synthesized with multiple measures of financial inclusion that reflect aggregate developmental outcomes. Pitching the analysis of financial inclusion within a macroeconomic framework requires the investigation of how aggregate forces such as output growth, inflation, financial infrastructure, and other related dimensions enable improved access to formal finance. Accordingly, this paper locates the impact of key macroeconomic variables on the extent of financial inclusion within a time series econometric framework. The findings indicate that the macroeconomic nature of financial inclusion is as critical as its microeconomic character which, unlike the macroeconomic counterpart, has rather been actively investigated in the extant literature. The paper also finds that financial inclusivity in India has emerged in large part from aggregate policy shifts and is noticeably shaped by policy impulses while also being shaped by traditional macroeconomic forces. The present study provides a unique perspective on the macroeconomics of financial inclusion for an emerging economy like India and highlights important insights, caveats, and lessons for the developmental path that lies ahead.

Keywords - Development Economics; Financial Inclusion; Formal Finance; Macroeconomics; Time Series Econometrics.

JEL Codes: O12, O17, G21.

  1. Assistant Professor, Department of Banking and Insurance, Faculty of Commerce, The Maharaja Sayajirao University of Baroda, Vadodara, Gujarat, India.
    E-mail: researchbhagirath@gmail.com, https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3465-3272
  2. Assistant Professor (Temporary), Department of Business Economics, Faculty of Commerce, The Maharaja Sayajirao University of Baroda, Vadodara, Gujarat, India.
    Email: researchdevanshi@gmail.com, https://orcid.org/0009-0000-3090-1481

A Micro-Level Study on the Performance of Public
Distribution System from Beneficiaries' Perspective

Jincy Mathew M. 1
Vishwanatha 2

The paper examines the performance of the Public Distribution System (PDS) from the beneficiaries' perspectives. As various unobservable factors are involved in determining the efficiency of PDS in delivering subsidized food items, the study applied Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). The estimates of factor analysis identify three factors: availability, accessibility, and utilization which are confirmed by the results of confirmatory factor analysis. The SEM results show the impact of availability and accessibility on the utilization of subsidized food grains obtained through PDS is statistically significant. However, the magnitude of the influence of accessibility is greater than that of availability. The descriptive statistics suggest that the government has to make changes in the existing system considering beneficiaries' preference over food grains, quality, auto updation of age, infrastructural facilities at ration shops, timely information, and regular distribution.

Keywords: Public Distribution System, Confirmatory Factor Analysis, Structural Equation Modeling.

JEL Classification: D6, O1, C3, C8.

  1. Department of Economics, Mangalore University.
    Email : jincymathew567@gmail.com, Orcid: 0000000238896709
  2. Professor and Chairman, Department of Economics, Mangalore University.
    Email : vishwanathakalaiah@gmail.com

A Holistic Approach of Organizations to Attract
Investments: Investors Perception
towards ESG Reporting

Apurva Shrivastava 1
Gyan Prakash (Retired) 2

Nowadays an organization is not focused only on its financial performance, its main aim is to attract investment by showing the overall development of the organization in the industry. The competition has become tough as all the industries are shifting towards sustainable growth. According to the new International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) norm a company has to produce a financial report as well as Environment Social Governance (ESG) report to its investors. ESG report enables an investor to get a comprehensive view about its financial positions. The study focuses on the investors' perception towards ESG reporting which can affect the investment decision of the investors the study revealed that the investors were concerned about three factors that could influence their investment decision; they were Panoramic View of the organization, Treatment of assets and Equitable growth with transparency. Out of the three two were found to be significantly impacting the investor's investment decision. Treatment of assets and Equitable growth with transparency were found impactful on investment decisions whereas the panoramic view of organization had insignificant relationship with the investors' investment decision. Thus, for an organization to gain the trust of investors and the market ESG reporting is needed.

Keywords: Environment, Social, Governance, Investments, KMO test.

JEL Classification: G40

  1. Department of Finance & Accounting, ICFAI Business School, IFHE, Hyderabad,
    Email ID: apurva90s@gmail.com, ORCID ID: 0009-0009-8050-4711
  2. Professor, School of Economics, Devi Ahilya University, Indore.
    Email ID: rgyanp5@gmail.com, ORCID ID: 0000-0003-0740-3657

Kerala's Fiscal Predicament: Structural Issues and
Prospective Reforms

M.K. Agarwal 1
Sandeep Deswal 2

In recent years, the Kerala state government has found itself entangled in a pressing fiscal Predicament, necessitating a comprehensive analysis to discern its origins, implications, and potential remedies. The state government and central government blame each other for financial problems and the long-term nature of revenue and fiscal deficits; the reality likely lies amidst these contrasting viewpoints. The Central government continues to face challenges regarding the equitable allocation of financial resources to the Kerala state government and other state governments in India. The study delves into the necessity for fiscal rules and constraints in Kerala. Its aim is to identify the key factors that contribute to the escalated fiscal imbalance in Kerala. This study uses secondary sources for data and covers the time period from 2016-17 to 2022-23. The revenue deficit and gross fiscal deficit (GFD) have consistently increased during the study period and remained higher than the national average. Additionally, revenue expenditure consistently exceeds revenue receipts, indicating an unfavourable condition for the economy. The main causes of the crisis in Kerala's economy are poor resource mobilization, unsound fiscal policy, inefficiency in tax administration, Covid-19 and flood in 2018, and failure in expenditure control. To overcome the current crisis and establish a sustainable public finance system, the government must take steps to increase the state's revenue without imposing more taxes on the people. This paper recommends measures to address the fiscal crisis: reduce non-developmental expenses, boost investment in productive sectors, cut subsidies, improve development spending efficiency, prioritize tackling tax evasion, reduce borrowing, and consider raising the retirement age. There are ample opportunities for this through increased resource mobilization and collaborative efforts with other states.

Keywords : Fiscal Deficits, Revenue Deficit, Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP), Expenditure pattern, Fiscal liabilities, Taxation.

  1. Professor, Department of Economics, University of Lucknow, Lucknow, India,
    E-mail: mk.agarwal.lu@gmail.com
  2. Research Scholar, Department of Economics, University of Lucknow, Lucknow, India,
    Email: sandeepdeswal95@gmail.com