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| Special Centennial Issue |
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No. 406 |
January 2022 |
Vol. CII (Part-III) |
ISSN: 0019-5170 |
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Contents
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Dynamics of Fiscal Imbalance in India: Relative Roles of
Political and Economic Cycles
D. K. Srivastava1
Sumedha Pandey2
Muralikrishna Bharadwaj3
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Two primary motivations that induce governments to incur
periodically higher than average fiscal imbalances relate to
political and economic cycles. The evolution of fiscal
imbalances in India over the period 1950-51 to 2021-22 can
be explained in terms of the impact of both these motivations.
The resultant outcome of periodically higher than average
fiscal deficits has been a progressive increase in the level of
government debt-GDP ratio in India. Each cycle, whether
political or economic, can be divided into two phases, (a)
expansionary phase and (b) contractionary phase. If the
upsurges in the fiscal imbalance in the expansionary
phase are higher on average than the reductions in the
contractionary phase, the resultant would be a continuing
increase in the outstanding debt-GDP ratio subject to the
relative dynamics of growth and interest rates. In this
paper, we have divided the overall period under study into
three phases. Phase 1: 1950-51 to 1975-76, Phase 2: 1976-77
to 2007-08 and Phase 3: 2008-09 to 2021-22. We find that
outstanding debt in India has continued to rise because of
three factors:(i) continued fiscal imbalance due to the
political motive, which was dominant in Phases 1 and 2,
although partially curbed after the enactment of the FRBM,
(ii) continued fiscal imbalance due to the economic cycle motive which is justified even by the FRBM and was
witnessed during major global crises of 2008 and 2021
and (iii) asymmetry in the magnitude of fiscal imbalance in
the slowdown and expansionary phases of the economic
cycles. It is as a result of the persistence of these factors that
the post Covid combined debt-GDP ratio of the central and
state governments has increased to close to 90%, calling
for a revised fiscal responsibility framework and concerted
effort to undertake corrective action.
Keywords: Political cycles, economic cycles, fiscal deficit,
government debt.
JEL Codes: H0, H1, H3, H6, E62 and E63
- Chief Policy Advisor, EY LLP India, Gurgaon, Haryana – 122002.
E-mail: dkscloud@gmail.com, dk.srivastava@in.ey.com
- (Corresponding author) Assistant Professor, CMP Degree Collage, Allahabad, Uttar
Pradesh – 211002. E-mail:sumedhapandey511@gmail.com
- Senior Manager, EY LLP India, Gurgaon, Haryana – 122002. E-mail: muralikrishna.b@outlook.com, muralikrishna.b@in.ey.com
Acknowledgements: The authors acknowledge valuable inputs provided Ms. Ragini Trehan
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Doubling Farmers Income by 2022: A Case Study of
Paddy and Banana farmers in Sreekrishnapuram-1 Village, Palakkad District-Kerala
Aparna Girish*1
Pesala Peter2
I. Maruthi3
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Over the years, India has transformed from the condition of
food deficiency to a self-sufficient country. Now it is high
time that the focus be shifted to improving the livelihood of
the farmers of the country and help them relish the fruits of
their labor. The Union Budget 2016-17 had stated that an
important objective of the Government is to double the
income of farmers by the year 2022.The study is pertaining
to the village called Sreekrishnapuram-1 in the Palakkad
district of Kerala and based on a primary survey of paddy
and banana farmers of the village. The area, production,
productivity, cost of cultivation and net income of the paddy
and banana farmers in the village has been analyzed for the
years 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2022.The paper also looks into
the socioeconomic characteristics and land particulars of the
farmers in the village. While the possibility of doubling net
income of paddy famers is low, it is expected that the banana
farmers be able to double their net income by 2022.The
views of farmers about the extent of effectiveness of each of
the strategies suggested by previous studies and previously
implemented programmes in the context of doubling of
income has been documented to have a profound
understanding of the situation persisting in Kerala and
prepare a roadmap therein.
Keywords: Paddy and Banana farmers, doubling farmers’ income by 2022 and village study.
- ADRTC, ISEC, Nagarabhavi, Bengaluru-560 072
- Consultant in ADRTC, Institute for Social and Economic Change (ISEC), Nagarabhavi,
Bengaluru-560 072; and corresponding author email: drpesalapeter@gmail.com
- Professor, ADRTC, ISEC, Nagarabhavi, Bengaluru-560 072
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Varying Profitability and Determinants of Gram Crop
Using Cost of Cultivation Data: A Fixed Effect Approach
Amit Mandal1
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The present paper attempts to find out the gap between
different cost and gross value of output (GVO), dynamics of
the inputs use and important indicators for gross value of
output of gram crop across major producing states during
2004-05 to 2014-15. The results corroborate that there has
been a sharp increase in GVO and total cost for all the states
after 2009-10. It was found that the rapid increase in
operational cost from 2009-10 was due to the introduction of
farm waiver scheme by Government of India in 2008-09. It
was also evident that the compound annual growth rate is
higher during 2009-10 to 2014-15 when compared during
2004-05 to 2007-08. The magnitude of profit in Madhya
Pradesh and Rajasthan was impressive showing the positive
trend over cost. There are no evidences that show that the
high productive regions have used their inputs efficiently. It
was observed from the fixed effect regression analysis that
efficiency of different inputs are not same for gram crops. It
was revealed that the irrigation cost and pesticides cost are
not significant while total labour cost seems to have been
used efficiently and significantly across the states for gram
cultivation over the time period.
Keywords : gross value of output, costs, CACP, fixed effect
regression model.
Jel Classification : Q00, Q11, Q15
- Assistant Professor in Economics, Mankar College under the University of Burdwan,
Mankar, West Bengal. E-mail: amit1987m@gmail.com.
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Demonetisation and Growth of Retail Digital Payment of
India
Laxmidhar Samal1
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Payment and settlement are the backbones of every economic
system. With the objective of making available retail
electronic payment to all at an affordable price with
innovative product variants and thereby shifting the economy
from cash denominated to digital, National Payment
Corporation of India (NPCI) was established in December
2008. It was established as an umbrella organisation for all
kinds of retail payment and settlement under the initiative of
RBI and the Indian Banks’ association. Further, on 8th
November 2016 Government of India announced
demonetisation banning the high denominated currency
notes of ₹500 and ₹200 which constitutes 86.9 percent of the
total value of the currency notes in circulation with the
primary objective of curbing black money and secondly to
encourage the digital economy.
In light of the above facts, this paper analyses the growth of
retail electronic payments in India from 2004-05 to 2018-19
and critically evaluates the impact of demonetisation on
retail electronic payments. To study the growth rate the
paper uses the log-lin model and by studying the impact of
demonetisation Welch's two samples mean equality t-test is
employed.
Keywords : NPCI, Demonetisation, NEFT, IMPS, Retail
Electronic Payment.
- Lecturer in Commerce, P.G. Department of Commerce, Baba Bhairabananda
Autonomous Mahavidyalaya, Chandikhole, Jajpur, Odisha, PIN- 755044.
Email- laxmidharsamal.ckl@gmail.com
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The Sustainable Development Goals 2030 –Agenda:3
and Health Expenditure in India
Soni Singh1
Anjali Singh2
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UN agenda for the sustainable development were resolved in
September 2015, a set of 17 goals to be achieved till 2030.
India is one of the 169 countries to be committed to achieve
the above said targets. UN Goals 2030 are unprecedented
partnership to achieve peace and prosperity for humanity
and planet. “The Sustainable development goals are a
collection of 17 global goals designed to be a blueprint to
achieve a better and more sustainable future for all.”
The centre of focus of UN agenda is human, as Goal: One
is to End poverty in all its forms everywhere is tended to
eradicate poverty for all people everywhere. The second
Goal is to End hunger, whereas the health is the third
target of the above said agenda. Health is a core issue of
the sustainable development Goal-3 aims to “Ensure
healthy lives and promote wellbeing for all at all ages”. The
Sustainable Development Goal-3 is a multifaceted and
universal objective on which human development policies of
nation may propose future plans.
In this paper the focus of researcher is to study the goal – 3
that is to be achieved till 2030, by all the 169 member
countries. To examine India’s health expenditure in view of
Goal-3 is also an objective of this paper. The researcher
shall also look into the strategies of the Indian States in
relation with Goal-3.The magnitude of this paper is to study
the achievement of Indian states in reducing maternal
mortality ratio and neonatal mortality rate.
Keywords- Sustainable Development Goals (SDG),
Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR), Infant Mortality Ratio (IMR), Neo-Natal Mortality Ratio(NMR), Health
Expenditure (HE).
- Research Scholar, Department of Economics, Dr. Shakuntala Misra National
Rehabilitation University, Lucknow.
- Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Dr. Shakuntala Misra National
Rehabilitation University, Lucknow
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College Education in India:
A Survey Through NIRF Lens
Sanjoy De1
Atanu Sengupta 2
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The paper tries to examine the performances of
undergraduate colleges in India from inequality and
efficiency perspective. For this, it uses the recently published
NIRF data. A significantly high concentration of top colleges
in only a few districts is observed. This reflects a severe lack
of opportunities in quality education in the country which
viciously impede the development of human capital. Also, the
high inequality index shown for the parameter ‘Perception’,
puts question mark to the inclusion of any subjective
parameter in the determination of ranks. The ranks prepared
on the basis of resource use pattern diverge a lot from the
NIRF ranking. There is huge upheavals and upsurge in the
ranking based on data envelopment analysis, indicating
gross disagreement. The Kendall‟s tau test testifies this
discordance.
Keywords: NIRF Ranking, College Education in India, Rank
Consistency, Efficiency Analysis, Kendall’s tau, data
efficiency analysis.
JEL Classification: I21, I23, I24, C40, D24
- Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Shyampur Siddheswari Mahavidyalaya,
University of Calcutta, West Bengal, India E-mail: sanjoyde2000@gmail.com
- Professor, Department of Economics, Burdwan University, Burdwan, West Bengal, India.
E-mail: sengupta_atanu@yahoo.com
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Urbanisation and Migration in India during 1991-2011:
An Inter-State Analysis
Pritha Kundu1
Pranakrishna Pal2
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Urbanisation is the process by which more and more people
leave the rural area and live in cities and towns.
Urbanisation depends on several factors. These are: a)
natural increase of population b) net rural to urban
migration c)relocation of rural settlements in urban areas
and d) the emergence of new points of concentration. India
has been experiencing the rapid urbanization flow from rural
to urban migration. The important push factors of migration
are, famine, drought, poor living conditions, low agricultural
productivity, poor medical care and unemployment on the
other hand the important pull factor of migration are
Employment opportunity, higher income, education, urban
facilities, security and quality of life. Present study has
estimated inter-state and intra-state net migrants and the
reason behind migration during 1991-2011. Using
regression technique, positive relations between urbanpopulation
and net-migrants have been established i.e. with
the increase in the net flow of rural to urban migrants the
urban-population always increases, irrespective of sex.
Keywords: Urbanization, In-Migrants, Out-Migrants, Net-
Migrants, Reasons for Migration.
Jel Codes: C01,O18, P25, R11, R23
- Research Scholar, Dept of Economics, Rabindra Bharati University, 19/3 Narasingha
Dutta Road, Kadamtala, Howrah, Pin-711101. Email: pritha.kundu04@gmail.com
- Professor, Department of Economics, Rabindra Bharati University, B-1/109, Kalyani,
PO-Nadia, Pin-741235. Email: pkp61@rediffmail.com
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Determinants of FDI Inflow in India
Digvijay Singh1
Sunil Kumar Niranjan2
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Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) plays a crucial role in
economic development and growth. In this research paper,
the researcher examines the basic determinants of FDI and
how these factors affecting foreign investment inflow in
India. In this paper, Inward FDI is a dependent variable
whereas GDP size, Trade openness, Exchange Rate, Stock
Exchange index are taken as independent variables. This
study has used time-series data and the Augmented Dickey-
Fuller test used for determining the stationarity of the data.
In this study, the researcher concludes that the size of the
GDP is the most important determinant that attracting
foreign Direct Investment in India.
Keywords: FDI, FPI, Exchange Rate, Stock Exchange Index,
Trade openness.
- Assistant Professor & Research Scholar, Department of Economics, M.B.P. Govt. P.G.
College Ashiyana, Lucknow. Email: dvsingh036@gmail.com
- Assistant Professor & Research Guide, Department of Economics, M.B.P Govt. P.G.,
College Ashiyana, Lucknow. Email: sunilniranjan@rediffmail.com
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A comparative Sector-Wise Assessment of Exports from
India to Japan Under Comprehensive Economic
Partnership Agreement
Areej Aftab Siddiqui1
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In recent years, Southeast Asia has emerged as a major hub
for manufacturing and has resulted in trade agreements and
economic partnerships which have been found to have
positive relationships with trade and investment. In 2011,
Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA)
was signed between India and Japan with an anticipation to
enhance trade between the two nations. In the present study,
this trade agreement has been analysed to study the macro
and sector-specific impact of India’s exports to Japan from
2007 to 2016. The sectors selected for the analysis are
Minerals Oils, Chemicals, Vehicles and Machinery. The
results indicate that CEPA is beneficial for Indian exports as
a whole and also for all the sectors except Mineral Oils
chosen in the study.
JEL Codes: F01, F14, F62
Keywords:: Economic Partnerships, Trade Agreements,
Comparative analysis, exports.
- Indian Institute of Foreign Trade, New Delhi, India E-mail: areej@iift.edu
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Imposition Times and Plight of Inter-State Migrant
Labourers from Assam
Pradyut Guha1
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Present study made an attempt to assess the regional
differences in distress among inter-state migrant labourers
from Assam following nationwide full lockdown during
initial phase of pandemic outbreak in India. The analysis of
data confirmed regional differences in economic distress
among the labourers with labourers immigrated to
Maharashtra and Kerala were the worst sufferers relative to
those in the rest of Indian states. The economic distress was
higher among the elderly labourers with additional days of
lockdown added to their agony. Steps towards strict
monitoring of public initiatives/programs at the grass root
level are necessary in addressing the imperfections in
allocation of resources and help the needy in times of
health/national emergencies.
Keywords: Unemployment, income los, regional.
JEL Classification: J610, E320
- Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Sikkim University (A Central University
Established by the Act of Parliament), 6th Mile, Samdur, P. O: Tadong-737102, Gangtok,
Sikkim (India). Email: pguha@cus.ac.in
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